🔗 Share this article Trump's Bold Prediction on American Energy Investment in Venezuelan Meets Industry Doubt. Market specialists have voiced considerable doubt regarding recent claims that US energy majors will rapidly commit tens of billions of dollars to rebuild Venezuela's crumbling production facilities. The Need for Absolute Guarantees Absent an “iron-clad guarantee” of financial backing from the US federal government, specialists predict international firms to proceed with great care. “It is hasty to discuss any upcoming plans,” a representative commented recently. The optimistic timeline of less than 18 months has been publicly outlined. However, realistic assessments suggest a different picture. A Likely Timeline “It’s probably going to take 36 months for any kind of output increase,” noted one energy analyst. Experts believe operators would likely spend: Year one: Sorting through new government and security contracts. The second year: Investing in overhaul of infrastructure. The third year: Being able to boost production. This would lead to an boost of around half a million barrels per day perhaps by the end of the decade. Interest vs. Readiness for Risk Analysts draw a key distinction between multinationals’ interest and their willingness to spend heavily. “In my view their interest is an high score, on a scale of ten. I think their readiness is a four or five, because there is a lack of certainty yet.” Experienced diplomats in the country echo this caution. The thinking is that companies will politically express enthusiasm while actually acting with deliberate slowness. The Vast Cost The financial outlay would be enormous. University projections suggest that increasing production by between half a million and a million barrels per day would require more than $10 billion in funding over several years. But, returning production to peak levels of around 2.5 million barrels per day could require a monumental $80 billion to $90 billion over six or seven years. The Outstanding Issue of Taxpayer Funding The prospect of oil giants being compensated by the government has been often raised. But, concrete details on any guarantee have so far not been forthcoming. The absence of certainty is the main reason for the sector's caution. Firms seek guarantees against nationalization and the possibility that a different president could renege on any promise. “It is essential to be protected from sovereign risk, that we’ve witnessed in Venezuela before.” In summary, while political optimism runs high, the practical risks suggest a road of extreme caution for potential significant financial commitment in the country's oil sector.